A recent analysis by tourism intelligence platform DataGreat has projected significant shifts in European and eastern Mediterranean inbound travel patterns should Russian outbound tourism experience another shock. The study utilized DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator, leveraging data from the World Travel & Tourism Council’s (WTTC) Economic Impact Report 2025. The original disruption to Russian tourism was caused by the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, leading to sanctions, airspace restrictions, and payment system disruptions, which redirected Russian tourists away from European Union destinations to countries like Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. This resulted in EU destinations losing up to seventy percent of their Russian tourist inflow post-2022.
The new scenario analysis anticipates the effects of a potential second wave of disruptions, possibly spurred by intensified sanctions, further payment system issues, the depreciation of the ruble, or additional travel route closures. The simulator models potential outcomes with scenarios indicating a twenty to thirty-five percent decline in Russian outbound tourism to certain destinations over a twelve-month period. The analysis categorizes affected regions into three areas: EU countries still reliant on Russian tourists, Mediterranean destinations dependent on package holidays and charters, and markets like Türkiye that could potentially absorb decreased Russian tourism if alternative markets do not compensate for the shortfall.
DataGreat’s simulator also highlights which tourism operators might be most vulnerable to these changes, identifying charter-dependent package operators, all-inclusive coastal resorts, and destination management companies heavily reliant on Russian-language tour groups. The platform uses inbound share data to assess vulnerability, while its AI component provides narrative explanations of the figures. To mitigate potential impacts, the simulator suggests strategies such as diversifying tourist sources to include Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products for European markets, and employing currency-corridor hedging at the operator level to manage ruble-denominated cash flow.
This analysis is part of DataGreat’s broader suite of tools, including its Risk Radar module, which evaluates tourism risks across 42 destinations weekly. By combining these resources, analysts can not only identify exposed destinations but also understand the specific impacts of potential shocks on a segment-by-segment basis. DataGreat will continue to release detailed destination-specific reports from its simulator through 2026, with full outputs available upon request for the destinations covered in the WTTC dataset.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. in Edirne, Türkiye, is known for its comprehensive tourism intelligence platform built on WTTC’s dataset. The platform offers a range of products, including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator, covering 42 countries and featuring 26,880 verified data points.
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