In a significant diplomatic engagement, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged congratulatory letters ahead of Putin’s scheduled visit to Beijing this week. The exchange underscores the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, marking the 30th anniversary of their strategic partnership. Putin is set to arrive in China on Tuesday evening, with a meeting with Xi planned for Wednesday morning. Discussions are expected to cover various areas of bilateral relations, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, as confirmed by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.
The back-to-back visits of leaders from both Russia and the United States have drawn considerable attention, with analysts noting the rarity of such diplomatic occurrences in the post-Cold War era. The strengthening relationship between China and Russia has been a concern for Western nations, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China’s economic and diplomatic support has been crucial for Russia, helping sustain the conflict, according to Western diplomats and analysts. Since the invasion, China has significantly increased its trade with Russia, purchasing over one-quarter of Russia’s exports and providing substantial revenue for Moscow’s war efforts through large-scale purchases of Russian crude oil.
China’s acquisition of Russian fossil fuels since the start of the war has surpassed $367 billion, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. These purchases have bolstered China’s energy security, which is particularly vital amid disruptions in the Middle East affecting oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Interestingly, the ongoing Ukraine conflict and Sino-Russian relations were not prominently featured in former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent discussions with Xi. Instead, their talks centered on trade, the situation in Taiwan, and the Middle East crisis, with Trump emphasizing the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a point on which China reportedly agreed.
Taiwan remains a contentious issue, with Xi cautioning Trump about the potential for conflict if the matter is mishandled. Trump’s departure from Beijing left the status of a significant U.S. arms deal with Taiwan undecided, a decision that could notably impact China’s ambitions regarding the self-governing island. Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that Taiwan might be an underlying theme in the upcoming Xi-Putin meeting. Beijing could be aiming to secure more fossil fuel agreements with Moscow to ensure energy supplies in the event of a future conflict. The expansion of Russian oil pipeline capacity to China could significantly boost Beijing’s oil security in a scenario involving Taiwan, according to Webster.
Russia is keen for China to advance the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, which would enhance the energy network between the two countries by adding 50 billion cubic meters of capacity. This pipeline is a crucial element of the ongoing discussions between the two nations, reflecting their mutual interest in strengthening energy cooperation amidst shifting global dynamics.